Some Sobering Lessons from the UK Vax Data

Our good colleague Don Wolt (@tlowdon) has a masterful ongoing data drive into data coming out of the UK. Our friends across the pond hit 50% vaccination back in May (U.S. hit that mark in August) and their current experience with the vaccines is rather sobering. Let’s just go straight into Don’s work (follow Don and see the entire thread here)

11.11.21: UK CoV2 infection rates among the fully vaxxed remain higher than their unvaxxed counterparts in most age cohorts.

Both vaxxed & unvaxxed of all ages get infected & spread – and in most age groups, the vaxxed moreso – rendering vaccine passports & mandates pointless.

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Note:

  • The chart shows infection RATES, not absolute numbers.
  • The rates are among the distinct populations, Vaxxed & Unvaxxed, for each age cohort.
  • The bars represent data from successive weekly UKHSA/PHE reports, with the most recent week on the right of each age cluster.
Image

The same report continues to show apparent vaxx effectiveness in reducing hospitalization & death risk. However, the mortality risk following a CoV2+ test for anyone <50 remains extremely low, and the risk to those <30 is effectively zero. So, vaxx mandates are still unwarranted.

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Note that, while infection rates in the youngest group (<18) had been rising sharply (they’ve actually fallen over the last 2 weeks’ reports), this isn’t reflected in a corresponding increase in fatality rates.

Reported Deaths/100K among children remain flat at ~0.

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UK vaxx uptake is strong among all but the very youngest cohorts. Note that all age cohorts from 80+ down through 18-19 now show ≥50% fully vaxxed. The 80+ group crossed that threshold at week 13 (31 weeks ago) & the 18-29s crossed it between weeks 36 & 38 (6-8 weeks ago).

Image

For reference, here is a chart of Daily UK CoV2+ Cases by specimen date, with the weeks represented in the vaxx surveillance data above noted.

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source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports

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