Lockdowns: pros and cons
Pros of lockdowns
Low chance of a possible temporary suspension of a respiratory virus
Gives politicians and bureaucrats the appearance of “taking the pandemic seriously”
Cons of lockdowns
People Suffering from Other Diseases
1.4 million additional tuberculosis deaths due to lockdown disruptions
500,000 additional deaths related to HIV
Malaria deaths could double to 770,000 total per year
65 percent decrease in all cancer screenings
Breast cancer screenings dropped 89 percent
Colorectal screenings dropped 85 percent
Projected increase in cancer deaths, including up to 16.6 percent increase in colorectal cancer deaths, 9.5 percent increase in breast cancer deaths, and 5.4 percent increase in lung cancer deaths over the next 5 years
75 percent decrease in suspected cancer referrals in the UK
At least 1/3 of excess deaths in the U.S. are already not related to COVID-19
Widespread disruption of access to health care in the UK, disproportionately for poor individuals
Increase in cardiac arrests but decrease in EMS calls for them
38% decrease in heart disease-related treatments
33% drop in heart attack patients, 58% drop in stroke patients
Significant increase in stress-related cardiomyopathy during lockdowns
15,000 additional non-COVID Alzheimer’s deaths (as of June – likely much higher now)
By mid-October, 3 million people in the UK had missed out on cancer screenings since the start of the pandemic
Starvation and Food Insecurity
168k child hunger deaths predicted in Africa
As many as 12,000 additional hunger deaths expected per day globally due to lockdown disruptions, up to 6,000 children
World Food Programme sees an 82% increase in food insecurity
132 million additional people in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to be undernourished due to lockdown disruptions
More than 50 million people living in America, including 17 million children, are likely to experience food insecurity by the end of the year
UNICEF is having to feed UK children for the first time
2 million Filipino families are starving because of lockdowns, at levels “never seen before”
UN warns that the famine and lockdown fallout in 2021 will be catastrophic
Effects on Children
Study estimates up to 2.3 million additional child deaths in the next year from lockdowns
Lockdowns are fueling child labor, including in commercial sex exploitation, mining, and tobacco production
Up to 104% increase in new HIV infections among children
Millions of girls have been deprived of access to food, basic healthcare, and protection and thousands exposed to abuse and exploitation
FGM increases in Africa, setting back previous widespread efforts to end FGM
Lockdown impact: an estimated 13 million more child marriages
Teen pregnancy up in many countries
Low-income students are suffering in online classes, widening inequality
School closures leading to a disproportionate increased health, social and economic divides between low and high-income families
School closures in the US decreased reported child abuse by 27 percent
Billions of days of lost education worldwide
Decreased access to healthcare
Anxiety and stress from stay-at-home orders
Sharp rise in eating disorders among children
Child abuse reports increased 34% in Ireland between March and December
Children, in greater numbers and at younger ages, are facing suicide and drug problems in Bradford, UK due to lockdowns
Domestic/Sexual Abuse
Domestic violence reports have skyrocketed (another source here)
Up to 70% decrease in reports of child abuse to CPS early in lockdown
Male victim domestic abuse calls increased by 60% in the UK
Domestic abuse becomes more severe during lockdowns
Economy and Poverty
150 million people forced into extreme poverty
8 million Americans pushed into poverty – largest increase in US history
Half of lower-income Americans report household job or wage loss due to lockdowns
A year of lockdowns has destroyed a decade of progress in helping the world’s poor – particularly in children
Shutdowns cause disproportionate number of evictions for Black and Latino tenants
School closures are causing many detrimental second-order economic effects
Lockdowns drive homelessness in NYC to record levels
Over 110,000 US restaurants permanently closed
Unemployment tripled among young Americans, 52% now live with their parents
2 million UK families have been pushed into poverty
NYC bankruptcies are up 40% compared to a year ago (as of September)
Half of European small and medium businesses say they will face bankruptcy in the next year
New Zealand lockdowns pushed 70k children into poverty
90% of New Zealanders who lost their jobs were women
Thousands of Aucklanders turn to food banks – there are now 29 registered food banks in Auckland; prior to COVID there were less than 5
Up to 500,000 fewer births in the U.S. will create severe economic hardship for childcare and child-related services and products
The end of 2020 brought the sharpest rise in the U.S. poverty rate since the 1960s
The equivalent of 225 million full-time jobs lost in 2020 according to the UN
Lockdowns created a “lost generation of unemployed” as those over 50 lose careers
Mental health
1 in 5 U.S. adults developed mental disorder
1 in 4 young adults have seriously considered suicide
Severe consequences from isolation of the elderly – increased mortality, worsening cognitive abilities, accelerating dementia, mental health consequences, failure to thrive, etc.
Isolation of children significantly increases their risk of poor adult health – both mentally and physically
Half of young adults showing signs of depression
Half of students say their mental health has declined
Suicidal ideation increased in areas under stay-at-home orders while it remained stable in areas that did not have stay-at-home orders
Cases of depression and prevalence of depression symptoms have tripled in the U.S.
As many as 10 million people, including 1.5 million children, are thought to need new or additional mental health support as a direct result of lockdowns in the UK
70% increase in referrals of patients with serious suicidal thoughts in Israel
A survey of college students showed ~85% experienced high to moderate levels of distress
In New Zealand, cases of depression and anxiety rose substantively in the wake of lockdowns
In England, 44.6% of 17–22 year olds with probable mental health problems reported not seeking help because of the pandemic
Suicides
Suicide-related calls to crisis hotline in Canada increased 66 percent
Suicides up in Bay Area
Projected increase in suicides in Canada
Canadians in quarantine twice as likely to have suicidal thoughts
Military suicides up 20%
Suicides increasing among children in Dallas metro area
Male suicides at highest level in two decades in England
Suicides rising in Japan for the first time in over a decade
Three times as many fentanyl deaths in Clark County, NV compared to 2019
Overdose deaths have spiked in San Francisco during lockdowns
Substance Abuse
Overdoses and overdose deaths are at their highest point ever for a 12-month period in the U.S.
Canada seeing record number of opioid deaths (Alberta, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Saskatchewan)
More people are needing drugs to cope with anxiety and depression
Fentanyl overdoses increased 60% in Georgia since lockdown
Every week of lockdowns increases binge drinking by 19%
