Lockdowns: pros and cons

Pros of lockdowns

• Low chance of a possible temporary suspension of a respiratory virus
• Gives politicians and bureaucrats the appearance of “taking the pandemic seriously”

Cons of lockdowns

• People Suffering from Other Diseases
  • 1.4 million additional tuberculosis deaths due to lockdown disruptions
  • 500,000 additional deaths related to HIV
  • Malaria deaths could double to 770,000 total per year
  • 65 percent decrease in all cancer screenings
  • Breast cancer screenings dropped 89 percent
  • Colorectal screenings dropped 85 percent
  • Projected increase in cancer deaths, including up to 16.6 percent increase in colorectal cancer deaths, 9.5 percent increase in breast cancer deaths, and 5.4 percent increase in lung cancer deaths over the next 5 years
  • 75 percent decrease in suspected cancer referrals in the UK
  • At least 1/3 of excess deaths in the U.S. are already not related to COVID-19
  • Widespread disruption of access to health care in the UK, disproportionately for poor individuals
  • Increase in cardiac arrests but decrease in EMS calls for them
  • 38% decrease in heart disease-related treatments
  • 33% drop in heart attack patients, 58% drop in stroke patients
  • Significant increase in stress-related cardiomyopathy during lockdowns
  • 15,000 additional non-COVID Alzheimer’s deaths (as of June – likely much higher now)
  • By mid-October, 3 million people in the UK had missed out on cancer screenings since the start of the pandemic
• Starvation and Food Insecurity
  • 168k child hunger deaths predicted in Africa
  • As many as 12,000 additional hunger deaths expected per day globally due to lockdown disruptions, up to 6,000 children
  • World Food Programme sees an 82% increase in food insecurity
  • 132 million additional people in sub-Saharan Africa are projected to be undernourished due to lockdown disruptions
  • More than 50 million people living in America, including 17 million children, are likely to experience food insecurity by the end of the year
  • UNICEF is having to feed UK children for the first time
  • 2 million Filipino families are starving because of lockdowns, at levels “never seen before”
  • UN warns that the famine and lockdown fallout in 2021 will be catastrophic
• Effects on Children
  • Study estimates up to 2.3 million additional child deaths in the next year from lockdowns
  • Lockdowns are fueling child labor, including in commercial sex exploitation, mining, and tobacco production
  • Up to 104% increase in new HIV infections among children
  • Millions of girls have been deprived of access to food, basic healthcare, and protection and thousands exposed to abuse and exploitation
  • FGM increases in Africa, setting back previous widespread efforts to end FGM
  • Lockdown impact: an estimated 13 million more child marriages
  • Teen pregnancy up in many countries
  • Low-income students are suffering in online classes, widening inequality
  • School closures leading to a disproportionate increased health, social and economic divides between low and high-income families
  • School closures in the US decreased reported child abuse by 27 percent
  • Billions of days of lost education worldwide
  • Decreased access to healthcare
  • Anxiety and stress from stay-at-home orders
  • Sharp rise in eating disorders among children
  • Child abuse reports increased 34% in Ireland between March and December
  • Children, in greater numbers and at younger ages, are facing suicide and drug problems in Bradford, UK due to lockdowns 
• Domestic/Sexual Abuse
  • Domestic violence reports have skyrocketed (another source here)
  • Up to 70% decrease in reports of child abuse to CPS early in lockdown
  • Male victim domestic abuse calls increased by 60% in the UK
  • Domestic abuse becomes more severe during lockdowns
• Economy and Poverty
  • 150 million people forced into extreme poverty
  • 8 million Americans pushed into poverty – largest increase in US history
  • Half of lower-income Americans report household job or wage loss due to lockdowns
  • A year of lockdowns has destroyed a decade of progress in helping the world’s poor – particularly in children
  • Shutdowns cause disproportionate number of evictions for Black and Latino tenants
  • School closures are causing many detrimental second-order economic effects
  • Lockdowns drive homelessness in NYC to record levels
  • Over 110,000 US restaurants permanently closed
  • Unemployment tripled among young Americans, 52% now live with their parents
  • 2 million UK families have been pushed into poverty
  • NYC bankruptcies are up 40% compared to a year ago (as of September)
  • Half of European small and medium businesses say they will face bankruptcy in the next year
  • New Zealand lockdowns pushed 70k children into poverty
  • 90% of New Zealanders who lost their jobs were women
  • Thousands of Aucklanders turn to food banks – there are now 29 registered food banks in Auckland; prior to COVID there were less than 5
  • Up to 500,000 fewer births in the U.S. will create severe economic hardship for childcare and child-related services and products
  • The end of 2020 brought the sharpest rise in the U.S. poverty rate since the 1960s 
  • The equivalent of 225 million full-time jobs lost in 2020 according to the UN 
  • Lockdowns created a “lost generation of unemployed” as those over 50 lose careers 
• Mental health
  • 1 in 5 U.S. adults developed mental disorder
  • 1 in 4 young adults have seriously considered suicide
  • Severe consequences from isolation of the elderly – increased mortality, worsening cognitive abilities, accelerating dementia, mental health consequences, failure to thrive, etc.
  • Isolation of children significantly increases their risk of poor adult health – both mentally and physically
  • Half of young adults showing signs of depression
  • Half of students say their mental health has declined
  • Suicidal ideation increased in areas under stay-at-home orders while it remained stable in areas that did not have stay-at-home orders
  • Cases of depression and prevalence of depression symptoms have tripled in the U.S.
  • As many as 10 million people, including 1.5 million children, are thought to need new or additional mental health support as a direct result of lockdowns in the UK
  • 70% increase in referrals of patients with serious suicidal thoughts in Israel
  • A survey of college students showed ~85% experienced high to moderate levels of distress 
  • In New Zealand, cases of depression and anxiety rose substantively in the wake of lockdowns 
  • In England, 44.6% of 17–22 year olds with probable mental health problems reported not seeking help because of the pandemic 
• Suicides
  • Suicide-related calls to crisis hotline in Canada increased 66 percent
  • Suicides up in Bay Area
  • Projected increase in suicides in Canada
  • Suicides up sharply in Toronto
  • Canadians in quarantine twice as likely to have suicidal thoughts
  • Military suicides up 20%
  • Suicides increasing among children in Dallas metro area
  • Male suicides at highest level in two decades in England
  • Suicides rising in Japan for the first time in over a decade
  • Three times as many fentanyl deaths in Clark County, NV compared to 2019 
  • Overdose deaths have spiked in San Francisco during lockdowns 
• Substance Abuse
  • Overdoses and overdose deaths are at their highest point ever for a 12-month period in the U.S.
  • Canada seeing record number of opioid deaths (Alberta, British Columbia, Winnipeg, Saskatchewan)
  • More people are needing drugs to cope with anxiety and depression
  • Fentanyl overdoses increased 60% in Georgia since lockdown
  • Every week of lockdowns increases binge drinking by 19%