Evidence over hysteria – COVID 7/30

COVID News

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Rise at Slowest Pace in Weeks

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-07-27-2020-11595840413?st=eopyngrq75fc197

“U.S. coronavirus cases rose by 55,000, the slowest daily pace since July 7, as some states continued to struggle with a rising number of infections and rapidly increasing death tolls.”

‘Shut it down, start over, do it right:’ Health experts sign open letter calling for second COVID-19 lockdown

https://fox6now.com/2020/07/25/shut-it-down-start-over-do-it-right-health-experts-sign-open-letter-calling-for-second-covid-19-lockdown/

“More than 150 health professionals from across the nation have signed an open letter to the nation’s decision-makers, asking that they “hit the reset button” on the nation’s response to the coronavirus pandemic.”

White House is recommending Tennessee close all bars. Gov. Bill Lee says no.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/coronavirus/2020/07/27/dr-deborah-birx-white-house-recommendation-tennessee-bars-restaurants/5515826002/

“Dr. Deborah Birx said Monday that Tennessee should close bars and limit indoor restaurant dining to prevent a looming escalation of the coronavirus outbreak. Moments later, Gov. Bill Lee said he had no plans to follow this recommendation.”

City Praises Contact-Tracing Program. Workers Call Rollout a ‘Disaster.’

The contact tracers said the program was confusing and disorganized in its first six weeks, leaving them fearful that their work would not have an impact on the virus.”

Why New York business leaders need to push hard to reopen fast

https://nypost.com/2020/07/26/why-new-york-business-leaders-need-to-push-hard-to-reopen-fast/

“COVID bent us, but it didn’t break us. The normalcy of a post-COVID life requires our buildings being filled again. It’s the New York way. Thank you for your consideration, and I look forward to what the future will be for the greatest city on earth.”

34 States, Plus DC and Puerto Rico, Now on NY Quarantine List as U.S. Deaths Top 150,000

“Three more states plus Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico were added to the tri-state quarantine list Tuesday, bringing the current list of viral hotspots near 40 as the nation struggles to contain COVID-19 outbreaks the CDC has warned may already be beyond the nation’s ability to control, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.”

More Than 6,300 Coronavirus Cases Have Been Linked to U.S. Colleges

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/28/us/covid-19-colleges-universities.html?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

“As college students and professors decide whether to head back to class, and as universities weigh how and whether to reopen, the coronavirus is already on campus.”

WHO says COVID-19 pandemic is ‘one big wave’, not seasonal

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-idUSKCN24T16U

 “A World Health Organization official on Tuesday described the COVID-19 pandemic as “one big wave” and warned against complacency in the northern hemisphere summer since the infection does not share influenza’s tendency to follow seasons.”

Young people are infecting older family members in shared homes

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/young-people-are-infecting-older-family-members-in-shared-homes/2020/07/28/b8cdc810-cd0a-11ea-b0e3-d55bda07d66a_story.html?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

“As the death toll escalates in coronavirus hot spots, evidence is growing that young people who work outside the home, or who surged into bars and restaurants when states relaxed shutdowns, are infecting their more vulnerable elders, especially family members.”

Masks May Reduce Viral Dose, Some Experts Say

“People wearing face coverings will take in fewer coronavirus particles, evidence suggests, making disease less severe.”

Why Houston Apartment Evictions Are Mounting

https://www.wsj.com/articles/apartment-evictions-are-mounting-in-houston-and-could-get-worse-11595583002?mod=e2twe

“You’re just kicking the can down the road and just letting the problem grow bigger and bigger for the resident.”

California, Florida and Texas see record rise in COVID-19 deaths

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/california-florida-and-texas-see-record-rise-in-covid-19-deaths-idUSKCN24U2HX?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email

“California, Florida and Texas, the three largest U.S. states, all set one-day records for fatalities from COVID-19 on Wednesday, a Reuters tally showed, and the Miami-area school district said students would not return to classrooms when the new academic year begins as deaths from the virus spiked nationwide.”

Academic Research

Association of contact to small children with mild course of COVID-19

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157149v1

“It is known that severe COVID-19 cases in small children are rare. There seems to be an association of contact to small children with mild course of COVID-19 in adults.”

SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics, duration of viral shedding and infectiousness: a living systematic review and meta-analysis

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.25.20162107v1

“No study to date has detected live virus beyond day nine of illness despite persistently high viral loads… Although RNA shedding can be prolonged, duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived. Thus, the detection of viral RNA cannot be used to infer infectiousness.”

Immune T Cells May Offer Lasting Protection Against COVID-19

“A study of memory T-cells suggests they might protect some people newly infected with SCoV2 by remembering past encounters with other coronaviruses. This might potentially explain why some people seem to fend off the virus and may be less susceptible…”

Virus-linked hunger tied to 10,000 child deaths each month

https://apnews.com/5cbee9693c52728a3808f4e7b4965cbd

“Virus [+COVID]-linked hunger is leading to the deaths of 10K more children a month over the first year of the pandemic… More than 550K additional children each month are being struck by what is called wasting…”

Charts and graphs

Texas, Arizona, and Florida are on the downward slope

(graph not adjusted for population)

Massachusetts Social Interactions vs. COVID cases

ICU Capacity in Houston’s Texas Medical Center

New York vs  Kentucky COVID 19 deaths

Opinion polls on NPIs 

Consumer Spending makes a come back in some sectors

High-income vs Developing Countries COVID 19 fatalities as a percentage

US infections compared to other countries who has seen an increase in cases

International News

Dutch government will not advise public to wear masks – minister

https://whtc.com/news/articles/2020/jul/29/dutch-government-will-not-advise-public-to-wear-masks-minister/1044325/?refer-section=health

“The Dutch government on Wednesday said it will not advise the public to wear masks to slow the spread of coronavirus, asserting that their effectiveness has not been proven.”

UK govt hands out a “get-out-of-mask” card – https://www.civicmc.nhs.uk/files/2020/06/Face-Covering-Exemption-Cards.pdf

Coronavirus: Chinese authorities to test six million residents in Dalian after new cluster emerges

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3094758/coronavirus-chinese-authorities-test-six-million-residents

“Authorities plan to test all those living in the port within days. A cluster of cases linked to a seafood processing company emerged in the northeastern city last week.”

Travel bans cannot be indefinite, countries must fight virus at home: WHO

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who/who-says-travel-bans-cannot-be-indefinite-countries-must-fight-virus-idUSKCN24S16N

“Bans on international travel cannot stay in place indefinitely, and countries are going to have to do more to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus within their borders, the World Health Organization said on Monday.”

Coronavirus Is Back With a Vengeance in Places Where It Had All but Vanished

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-is-back-with-a-vengeance-in-places-where-it-had-all-but-vanished-11595842202

“Hong Kong, Japan and Australia are seeing new waves of infections after relaxing Covid-19 restrictions.”

Coronavirus: Vietnam evacuating 80,000 from city after 11 positive COVID-19 tests

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/vietnam-evacuating-80-000-people-city-three-positive-050000872.html

“Vietnam is evacuating 80K people, mostly local tourists, from the central city of Da Nang after 11 residents tested positive for COVID…The evacuation will take at least four days with domestic airlines operating ~100 flights daily.”

Vietnam, Lauded in Coronavirus Fight, Has First Local Case in 100 Days

“Vietnam, which had gone 100 days without reporting a case of local transmission of the coronavirus, said on Saturday that a 57-year-old grandfather in the central city of Danang had tested positive. How he got the illness remains a mystery.”

‘Runaway’ causes first suspected COVID-19 case in North Korea, state media says

“A runaway who went to the south three years ago…suspected to have been infected with the vicious virus after illegally crossing.”

Sweden Unveils ‘Promising’ Covid-19 Data as New Cases Plunge

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-28/sweden-unveils-promising-covid-19-data-as-new-cases-plunge

“The curves are going down and the curves for the seriously ill are beginning to approach zero… With numbers diminishing very quickly in Sweden, we see no point in wearing a face mask in Sweden, not even on public transport.” – Tegnell

Quarantine to be cut to 10 days for people arriving from Spain

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/07/27/quarantine-cut-10-days-spain-arrivals/

“Arrivals will be able to shorten their period of isolation if they test negative for virus after eight days.”

Economy 

WORKERS ARE LEAVING THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY

https://www.restaurantbusinessonline.com/workforce/workers-are-leaving-restaurant-industry

“The unemployment rate in the leisure and hospitality industries, including restaurants, soared from 5.7% in February to 39.3% in April, and in June was still at an unprecedented 28.9%. By comparison, the overall unemployment rate is 11.1%…”

Google to Keep Employees Home Until Summer 2021 Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-to-keep-employees-home-until-summer-2021-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-11595854201

“Google will keep its employees home until at least next July, making the search-engine giant the first major U.S. corporation to formalize such an extended timetable in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.”

Companies Start to Think Remote Work Isn’t So Great After All

https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-start-to-think-remote-work-isnt-so-great-after-all-11595603397

“Now, as the work-from-home experiment stretches on, some cracks are starting to emerge. Projects take longer. Training is tougher. Hiring and integrating new employees, more complicated. Some employers say their workers appear less connected…”

Fed wrestles with its next moves as virus stalls US economy

https://apnews.com/36825dd2df98496e3d9349a6518cf82c?utm_source=morning_brew

 “Federal Reserve officials are grappling this week with the timing and scope of their next policy moves at a time when the raging viral pandemic has weakened the U.S. economy.”

Why Delta Is Leaving Middle Seats Empty During the Pandemic

“An executive for the airline explains its distancing practices and approach to cleaning at a time when its biggest rivals are selling all the seats they can.”

Fed chief says coronavirus surge slowing U.S. economic recovery

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-repeats-pledge-to-keep-u-s-interest-rates-low-idUSKCN24U2VB?utm_source=morning_brew

“The surge in U.S. coronavirus cases is beginning to weigh on economic activity, the head of the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday, and he promised the U.S. central bank would “do what we can, and for as long as it takes,” to limit damage and boost growth.”