Evidence over hysteria – COVID 7/28

Reopening/ Lockdown Updates

Can Restaurants Survive Shutting Down Again?

https://www.eater.com/2020/7/22/21331524/can-restaurants-survive-second-covid-19-shut-down-pandemic?mc_cid=e47146842d&mc_eid=757d15ce36

“Closing dining rooms once cost a lot of money, but closing twice could be even worse.”

Reopening Schools Is Way Harder Than It Should Be

Of all the American institutions the pandemic has shut down, none face pressure to reopen quite like schools do.Pediatricians exhort schools to open their doors wherever possible or risk developmental harm to kids.”

NYC Reports No Uptick in New Coronavirus Cases Amid Reopening with Test and Trace Corps a Key Factor

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/coronavirus-blog/2020/07/23/no-uptick-in-new-coronavirus-cases-as-nyc-reopens

“Today, our rates of new cases of coronavirus, through all of those phases of reopening, have not had an uptick whatsoever,” said Dr. Ted Long, executive director of the city’s Test and Trace Corps. “They’ve been completely stable.” 

Cuomo threatens to close ALL New York bars and restaurants if ‘stupid’ crowds and business owners continue to ignore social distancing rules despite hospitalizations reaching their lowest since March 18

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8541507/Cuomo-threatens-close-New-York-bars-restaurants-crowds-continue-gather.html

“Bars and restaurants in New York City can service people on an outdoor basis. But Cuomo said on Monday too many were ignoring social distancing rules.”

Did the US Lockdown Too Late and Open Too Soon?

“The media’s narrative however shows the telltale signs of a policy response (lockdowns) in search of a rationalization. For all the rhetoric about the US ‘rush to reopen’ and Europe’s allegedly more effective use of lockdowns, data…shows the opposite.”

More Than Half of U.S. Business Closures Permanent, Yelp Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-22/more-than-half-of-u-s-business-closures-permanent-yelp-says

“More than half of the business closures that were temporary when the COVID-19 outbreak began are now considered permanent, according to Yelp.”

Summarizing Recent  Academic Research

No known case of teacher catching coronavirus from pupils, says scientist

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/no-known-case-of-teacher-catching-coronavirus-from-pupils-says-scientist-3zk5g2x6z

“There has been no recorded case of a teacher catching the coronavirus from a pupil anywhere in the world says Dr. Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at University of Edinburgh”

UW Health research study results show significant and alarming mental health impacts on school closures and sport cancellations

https://www.wissports.net/news_article/show/1110971

“Previous studies have demonstrated that prolonged quarantines can negatively impact mental health. Schools play an important role in providing access to mental health services for disadvantaged students.”

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2768834

“For most sites, it is likely that greater than 10 times more SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred than the number of reported COVID-19 cases; most persons in each site, however, likely had no detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.”

The COVID Panic Is a Lesson in Using Statistics to Get Your Way in Politics

https://mises.org/wire/covid-panic-lesson-using-statistics-get-your-way-politics

“The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight… they will be called alcoholism, homelessness, suicide, heart attack, stroke. In youths, it will be called financial instability, unemployment, despair, drug addiction…”

Residential Context and COVID-19 Mortality among the Elderly in Stockholm: A population-based, observational study

https://su.figshare.com/articles/preprint/Residential_Context_and_COVID-19_Mortality_among_the_Elderly_in_Stockholm_A_population-based_observational_study/12612947/1

“Compared to living in only-old households, living with someone of working age is associated with elevated COVID-19 mortality. Living in a care home is associated with a 4-fold risk of COVID-19 mortality compared to living in independent housing.”

Duration of Isolation and Precautions for Adults with COVID-19

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html

“Available data indicate that persons with mild to moderate COVID-19 remain infectious no longer than 10 days after symptom onset. Persons with more severe to critical illness…remain infectious no longer than 20 days after symptom onset.”

Charts and graphs

US meets its initial testing goal

Status of reopening across the US

Consumer spending recovery is stalling

New York State vs. Sweden

Mexico starts to a high plateau

More and more small business give up

Hotspot update

Arizona sees a decline in hospitalizations

Florida compared to New York

Texas’s hospitalizations flattening

California COVID healthcare utilization across the state

International News

Hong Kong third wave: no symptoms or link to confirmed Covid-19 case? Getting tested will only overburden system, health official says

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3093944/hong-kong-third-wave-no-symptoms-or-link

“Dr. David Hui Shu-Cheong [a respiratory medicine expert at Chinese Univ] said while he understood the public’s worries, the infection figures so far proved that positive coronavirus tests were very rare without symptoms or links to past confirmed cases.”

Israel’s schools will open on time even with rise in coronavirus cases, education minister asserts

https://www.jta.org/quick-reads

“I say here to the citizens of the State of Israel, the school year will open on September 1. Period.”

‘Delhi’s Sero Survey Results Show We Are Fast Approaching Herd Immunity’: Epidemiologist J P Muliyil

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-delhis-sero-survey-results-show-we-are-fast-approaching-herd-immunity-epidemiologist-j-p-muliyil/357205

“The results of the Sero prevalence study in the national capital are encouraging and it indicates that India will achieve herd immunity soon, says leading epidemiologist, Jayaprakash Muliyil, chairman of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology.”

The Amazon, Giver of Life, Unleashes the Pandemic

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/25/world/americas/coronavirus-brazil-amazon.html?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

“As the pandemic assails Brazil, overwhelming it with more than two million infections and more than 84,000 deaths — second only to the United States — the virus is taking an exceptionally high toll on the Amazon region and the people who have depended on its abundance for generations.”

Sweden Says Covid Immunity Can Last 6 Months After Infection

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-21/sweden-says-covid-immunity-can-last-half-a-year-after-infection

“We don’t see cases of people falling ill twice from COVID-19. Hence, our assessment is that if you do get COVID-19 you are immune, even if you don’t develop antibodies.” – Anders Tegnell

Record numbers of coronavirus cases in every global region: Reuters tally

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-global-cases/record-numbers-of-coronavirus-cases-in-every-global-region-reuters-tally-idUSKCN24Q08E?utm_source=morning_brew

“Almost 40 countries have reported record single-day increases in coronavirus infections over the past week, around double the number that did so the previous week, according to a Reuters tally showing a pick-up in the pandemic in every region of the world.”

Virus spike in Spain prompts UK, France to warn off tourists

https://apnews.com/0e10423d8a4453e746428638338d02a1?utm_source=morning_brew

“Nightclubs, bars and beaches — some of Spain’s most beloved summer venues — are facing new lockdown restrictions after turning into coronavirus hot spots, and some European nations are warning citizens not to visit the country.”

North Korea Reports 1st Suspected Case Of Coronavirus

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/26/895473629/north-korea-reports-1st-suspected-case-of-coronavirus?utm_source=morning_brew

“North Korean leader Kim Jong Un placed the city of Kaesong under lockdown after a person suspected to be infected by the coronavirus returned from South Korea.”

German cruise ship sets sail, hopes short trip thwarts virus

https://apnews.com/e9878e281e71d58a6bd4e7f88a24797d?utm_source=morning_brew

“A German cruise ship is gingerly testing the water amid the coronavirus pandemic, setting sail for the first time since the industry was shut down months ago and using strict precautions to keep passengers and crew as safe as possible.”

Set sail and social distance: Taiwan resumes ocean cruise amid pandemic

“Taiwan resumed an island-hopping ocean cruise on Sunday, joining a handful of places in the world to restart voyages after the coronavirus pandemic brought the industry to a virtual standstill.”

Fears grow over complacency as Japan sees nationwide coronavirus spike

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/26/national/japan-coronavirus-spike-state-of-emergency/#.Xx7fOyjYqM8

“We’re doing careful monitoring … but we’re not in a situation that immediately warrants the issuance of a fresh state of emergency declaration.” – Prime Minister Abe

Hong Kong bans restaurant dining as it battles new wave of coronavirus

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-hongkong/hong-kong-bans-restaurant-dining-as-it-battles-new-wave-of-coronavirus-idUSKCN24S0M4?mc_cid=8816226343&mc_eid=757d15ce36

“Hong Kong banned gatherings of more than two people on Monday, closed down restaurant dining and introduced mandatory face masks in public places, including outdoors, as it tries to rein in a new coronavirus outbreak.”

Other COVID News

U.S. coronavirus deaths top 1,100 for a third day in a row

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/u-s-coronavirus-cases-pass-four-million-as-infections-rapidly-accelerate-idUSKCN24O2C2?utm_source=morning_brew

“The United States on Thursday recorded more than 1,100 deaths from COVID-19, marking the third straight day the nation passed that grim milestone as the pandemic escalates in southern and western U.S. states.”

Why Covid-19 might just be the end of the penny

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/perspectives/eliminating-penny-coin-shortage/index.html?utm_source=morning_brew

“A penny for your thoughts — or a nickel, dime or quarter, for that matter — may be harder to come by these days because of a nationwide shortage of coins.”

Dr. Fauci says coronavirus vaccine likely won’t be ‘widely’ available until several months into 2021

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/dr-fauci-says-coronavirus-vaccine-likely-wont-be-widely-available-until-months-into-2021.html?utm_source=morning_brew

“White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said that a coronavirus vaccine likely won’t be “widely available” to the American public until “several months” into 2021.”

A second Great Depression? Unemployment crisis hits big cities hard

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/some-big-cities-are-hitting-great-depression-unemployment-levels.html

“Great Depression levels of unemployment have hit some of the country’s biggest cities. The coronavirus pandemic has pushed the jobless rate in New York, Los Angeles, and other major urban areas to near or above 20%, nearly twice the national rate.”

Corporate Insiders Pocket $1 Billion in Rush for Coronavirus Vaccine

“Well-timed stock bets have generated big profits for senior executives and board members at companies developing vaccines and treatments.”

Dogs Can Sniff Out Coronavirus Infections, German Study Shows

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-24/dogs-can-sniff-out-coronavirus-infections-german-study-shows?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

“Dogs with a few days of training are capable of identifying people infected with the coronavirus, according to a study by a German veterinary university.”